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Horse and TaxesTier 1
at ArtofCards DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 66.7% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 54.3% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 22.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |